457
AXPZ20 KNHC 221552
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 101.6W AT 22/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175
KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR 44 FT OR 13.5 M. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLO HAS A CLEARLY AND WELL DEFINED EYE ON
INFRARED IMAGES, WITH INCREDIBLY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING
TO WRAP AROUND AN EYEWALL. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN WIDE
BANDS ARE WITHIN 270 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANTS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG, ALSO IN BANDS, IS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. POLO IS FORECAST TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. POLO IS A CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2
TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 22/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT OR 6 M. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT ODALYS IS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
QUADRANT, 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT, 360 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NW QUADRANT. ODALYS IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD NORTH. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST, AND ODALYS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST POLO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN ADDITION THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ENHANCED MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER 22ND THROUGH
THE 25TH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKELY. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 13N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SHORTENED MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND TO 12N87W AND TO 11N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
88W-90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE POLO.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA PER OVERNIGHT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 15.0N
101.5W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT GUSTS
190 KT, TO NEAR 15.4N 101.9W WED MORNING, TO NEAR 16.1N 102.8W
WED EVENING, TO NEAR 16.7N 104.2W THU MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT, TO NEAR 17.1N 105.9W THU
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT, AND
TO NEAR 17.3N 107.5W FRI MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.4N 110.8W EARLY
SAT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL
START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO. LOOKING AHEAD,
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTER SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY
CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
THU, THEN PULSE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP IT PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA, EASTERN PANAMA AND
IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE
WAVE OVER THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM JUST WEST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS, ARE OVER THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 24N AND WEST OF 133W DUE
TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA, ODALYS AND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE WEST OF
140W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR
15.4N 101.9W WED MORNING, TO NEAR 16.1N 102.8W WED EVENING, TO
NEAR 16.7N 104.2W THU MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT
GUSTS 170 KT, TO NEAR 17.1N 105.9W THU EVENING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT, AND TO NEAR 17.3N 107.5W FRI
MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. POLO
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.4N 110.8W EARLY SAT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.2N 129.9W THIS
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT, MOVE
TO NEAR 15.3N 128.7W WED MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
75 KT GUSTS 90 KT, TO NEAR 15.6N 127.3W WED EVENING, TO NEAR
16.1N 126.0W THU MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES TO NEAR 16.7N 124.8W THU EVENING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT AND TO NEAR 17.4N 123.7W FRI
MORNING. ODALYS IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 18.9N 123.0W EARLY SAT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. VERY LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH SYSTEMS WILL
MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER RESULTING IN VERY DANGEROUS AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS.
AGUIRRE
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