458
ABPZ20 KNHC 221725
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS, LOCATED WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON HURRICANE POLO, LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (FORMER TD 15-E):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP IT PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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