731
WTPZ41 KNHC 222043
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
DEEP CONVECTION WAS ON A POSITIVE TREND UNTIL RECENTLY, WHEN THE
CLOUD TOPS STARTED TO WARM BASED ON THE DATA FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, LIKELY DUE TO ENTERING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS T3.5/55 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME
AS THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 53-70 KT. THEREFORE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 60/3 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD DEEPEN FURTHER. AFTER THIS, THE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE
MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR ODALYS RESULTING IN AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 H, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES AS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO COULD CAUSE ODALYS TO SLOW DOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER WIND
SHEAR, PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT. AFTER 48 H, ODALYS WILL ENCOUNTER A
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE POLO. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI
FORECAST AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN
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