936
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 101.5W AT 22/2100
UTC, AND NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 892 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO
190 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR 45 FT OR 14 M. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLO HAS A SMALL EYE AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 270 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN OF THE CENTER
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS NEARLY STATIONARY, BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH POSSIBLE WED AND
WED NIGHT. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN
THROUGH THU. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF
2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO THROUGH THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 130.1W, OR ABOUT
1235 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO
75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT OR 7 M. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT ITS DEEP CONVECTION OF NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT, 270 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT, 300 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT.
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MOTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ODALYS
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST POLO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN ADDITION THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE 26TH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL,
BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR CHIAPAS, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA, WESTERN HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR, SOUTHERN BELIZE
WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICES AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AND 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO
14N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SHORTENED MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND TO 12N87W AND TO 11N89W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE POLO.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 15.0N
101.8W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT GUSTS 200
KT, TO NEAR 15.5N 102.4W WED AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 16.2N 103.6W
LATE WED NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT GUSTS 190 KT,
TO NEAR 16.7N 105.2W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
150 KT GUSTS 185 KT, TO NEAR 17.0N 106.9W LATE THU NIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT, TO NEAR 17.4N 108.5W
FRI AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR 18.7N 111.5W SAT AFTERNOON WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO
DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO. LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MOTION SHOULD
KEEP IT PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA, EASTERN
PANAMA AND IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAS DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN A FEW DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATE
THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE WATERS
ROUGHLY FROM 15N TO 23N WEST OF 134W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SWELL WITHIN THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE AS
NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 15.0N
101.8W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT GUSTS
195 KT, TO NEAR 15.5N 102.4W WED AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 16.2N 103.6W
LATE WED NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT GUSTS 190 KT,
TO NEAR 16.7N 105.2W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
150 KT GUSTS 185 KT, TO NEAR 17.0N 106.9W LATE THU NIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT AND TO NEAR 17.4N
108.5W FRI AFTERNOON. POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 18.7N 111.5W SAT
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.2N 129.3W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 15.4N 128.0W WED AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT, TO NEAR 15.8N 126.6W
LATE WED NIGHT, TO NEAR 16.5N 125.3W THU AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 17.3N
124.1W LATE THU NIGHT AND TO NEAR 18.0N 123.5W FRI AFTERNOON WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ODALYS WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.6N 123.0W SAT AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. VERY LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER RESULTING IN VERY DANGEROUS AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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