663
WTPZ41 KNHC 230242
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ODALYS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT EARLIER TONIGHT, WHICH DISRUPTED THE DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED CENTER. IN ADDITION, A RECENT SSMIS PASS INDICATED MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR HAD DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WAS DISPLACING THE REMAINING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CORE OF ODALYS, WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOLING TO BELOW -80 C. THE LATEST TAFB
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 53-67 KT. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
8 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS GUIDED BY A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION, IS FORECAST BY LATE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES ODALYS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND 72 H, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN, AS A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COULD
INFLUENCE ODALYS' MOTION WHILE THE MAJOR HURRICANE MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 48 H, TOWARD
THE HCCA SOLUTION.
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, AND
ODALYS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS
WEEK, HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR, COOLER WATERS AND INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE POLO ARE
EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE TOP OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER ADAMS
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