147
AXPZ20 KNHC 230328
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0140 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 101.3W AT 23/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
905 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 46 FT OR 14.0 M. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT POLO CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE, AND 105 NM
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER, EXCEPT 390 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A SLOW BUT
SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK,
ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
THOUGH POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL MAJOR
HURRICANE. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF, RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 129.0W AT 23/0300
UTC, MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 25 FT OR 7.5 M. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ITS DEEP CONVECTION OF NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER, EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. ODALYS
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AN EASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST POLO
AND ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH SYSTEMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN ADDITION THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE 26TH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL,
BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR CHIAPAS, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA, WESTERN HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR, SOUTHERN BELIZE
WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THESE REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES
AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W NORTH OF 04N, DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N
TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 94W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, EXITING THE COAST AT 10N86W TO 08N93W,
THEN RESUMES WELL W PAST THE CIRCULATIONS OF POLO AND ODALYS,
FROM 13N131W TO 11N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH POLO AND ODALYS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALL DISCUSSED ABOVE,
NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS PRESENT.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANE POLO.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.0N
101.6W WED MORNING, 15.9N 102.8W WED EVENING, 16.4N 104.3W THU
MORNING, 16.6N 106.1W THU EVENING, 16.8N 108.0W FRI MORNING, AND
17.0N 110.0W FRI EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO 18.2N 112.7W LATE SAT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF POLO. LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL STORM ODALYS
CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE
WATERS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE COLOMBIA, EASTERN
PANAMA AND IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN A FEW DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE POLO, AND ON TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE WATERS
ROUGHLY FROM 15N TO 22N TO THE W OF 133W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SWELL WITHIN THIS AREA OF FRESH
TRADES. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE
AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.0N
101.6W WED MORNING, 15.9N 102.8W WED EVENING, 16.4N 104.3W THU
MORNING, 16.6N 106.1W THU EVENING, 16.8N 108.0W FRI MORNING, AND
17.0N 110.0W FRI EVENING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO 18.2N 112.7W LATE SAT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ODALYS WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.5N 128.0W WED
MORNING, MOVE TO 15.8N 126.6W WED EVENING, 16.4N 125.3W THU
MORNING, 17.1N 124.1W THU EVENING, 17.9N 123.2W FRI MORNING, AND
18.6N 122.9W FRI EVENING. ODALYS WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER 20.2N 122.6W LATE SAT. VERY LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER RESULTING IN VERY
DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
LEWITSKY
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