135
ABPZ20 KNHC 230520
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
POLO, ABOUT 200 MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS, LOCATED WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (FORMER TD 15-E):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD,
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.
FORECASTER KELLY
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