271
WTPZ41 KNHC 230841
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODALYS HAS RECOVERED FROM THE
EARLIER DRY AIR INTRUSION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH A CONVECTIVE SHIELD THAT HAS COLD CLOUD TOPS
NEAR -80 C. IN ADDITION, A RECENT WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE RING AND A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS
INCREASED TO T4.0/65 KT, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 68 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION IN THE MICROWAVE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT, MAKING ODALYS A HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065/8
KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ODALYS IS STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX, AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE FUTURE TRACK OF ODALYS.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND
LIES NEAR THE PREVIOUS THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RELAXING AS ODALYS
TRAVERSES WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY 48 TO 72
HOURS, WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, SSTS WILL
COOL, AND ODALYS MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE POLO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY, AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND GDMI INTENSITY AIDS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL-SIMULATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODALYS WILL SUCCUMB TO A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, IT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WHICH IS NOW SHOWN IN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AT DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 15.9N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KELLY
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