536
AXPZ20 KNHC 230851
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0740 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 101.4W AT 23/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
918 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 46 FT OR 14 M. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN 150 NM IN
THE E SEMICIRCLE, AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT 330 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT.
POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ALTHOUGH
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT POLO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THU. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 128.4W
AT 23/0900 UTC, MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 23 FT OR 7
M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM
IN THE NE QUADRANT, 330 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT, AND 120 NM IN THE
W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE,
AND 150 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ODALYS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. AN EASTWARD TO EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH
LATER THIS WEEK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
POLO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH POLO AND ODALYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA: A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN ADDITION THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE 26TH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL,
BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR CHIAPAS, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA, WESTERN HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR, SOUTHERN BELIZE
WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THESE REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES
AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W/91W NORTH OF 04N,
DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS
PANAMA, EXITING THE COAST AT 08N83W TO 13N95W, THEN RESUMES PAST
THE CIRCULATIONS OF POLO AND ODALYS FROM 13N129W TO 13N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POLO AND ODALYS AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALL DISCUSSED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ODALYS
WELL W OF THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO. SOME CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAINLY DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 102.0W
THIS AFTERNOON, 16.2N 103.4W THU MORNING, 16.5N 105.0W THU
AFTERNOON, 16.7N 107.0W FRI MORNING, 16.9N 108.8W FRI AFTERNOON,
AND 17.3N 110.6W SAT MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 19.4N 112.7W EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD,
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS AND MIX
WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS, LOCALLY
MODERATE S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF ECUADOR. MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS NEARSHORE
COLOMBIA, EASTERN PANAMA AND IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
SOME CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND
BEYOND 60 NM OFFSHORE TO THE N OF 10N DUE TO A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
EXCEPT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THU INTO EARLY SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ODALYS
WELL W OF THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ODALYS AND POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE
WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE W OF 129W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SWELL WITHIN THIS AREA, HIGHEST TO
THE W OF ODALYS TO 140W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 102.0W
THIS AFTERNOON, 16.2N 103.4W THU MORNING, 16.5N 105.0W THU
AFTERNOON, 16.7N 107.0W FRI MORNING, 16.9N 108.8W FRI AFTERNOON,
AND 17.3N 110.6W SAT MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 19.4N 112.7W EARLY SUN. MEANWHILE,
HURRICANE ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 16.1N 127.3W THIS AFTERNOON, 16.5N
126.0W THU MORNING, 17.2N 124.7W THU AFTERNOON, 18.0N 123.5W FRI
MORNING, 18.7N 122.9W FRI AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 19.5N 122.7W SAT MORNING. ODALYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 21.4N 122.6W EARLY SUN. VERY LARGE SEAS
GENERATED BY BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER
RESULTING IN VERY DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH
MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
LEWITSKY
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