406
WTPZ41 KNHC 231445
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
ODALYS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR NOW, IN AGREEMENT
WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT DPRINT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS ODALYS IS STEERED BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH, ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, IS
FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN
BECOMES ILL-DEFINED, AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO
COULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK OF ODALYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND
LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE LATEST DECAY-SHIPS MODEL INPUT, ODALYS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
SUFFICIENTLY WARM OCEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS AR
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
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