561
WTNT41 KNHC 232035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT WED SEP 23 2026
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY AND HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE DAY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM STILL HAD A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, FAY MEETS
THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.
THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND VECTOR OF AROUND
31 KT AND THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION WAS AT T1.5/25
KT. BASED ON THE GIVEN DATA, FAY'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30
KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR AROUND
260/8 KT, AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL MOTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN
LINE WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THERE IS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR FAY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, HOWEVER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 36 H. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AGAIN, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY 60 H, AND THEN DISSIPATING AROUND 96 H, AS
SUGGESTED BY SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODEL. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH
BOTH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
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