427
WTPZ41 KNHC 232053
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
ODALYS' CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS
-90 C. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAME IN
AT 4.0/65 KT, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF DMINT AND ADT FROM UW-CIMSS
SHOWED VALUES OF 68 AND 72, RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE
DEEPER CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT.
MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES HELPED REFINE THE POSITION FOR
ODALYS, REQUIRING AN AMENDMENT OF THE BEST TRACK A BIT TO THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 85/6 KT. ODALYS IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTH, ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BEYOND DAY 3, THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED, AND
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK
OF ODALYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AS THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE IS MUCH
LARGER THAN NORMAL. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
FOR THE NEXT 48 H, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOWERED SSTS, AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
HCCA AND GDMI, AND ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY
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