501
WTPZ41 KNHC 240250
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ODALYS HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND -80 C
EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT, SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, NAMELY DMINT AND ADT, AT 78 AND 72 KT,
RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE DEEPER CONVECTION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EASTWARD, OR 85/6 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH. ODALYS IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
BEYOND DAY 3, POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE POLO COMPLICATES
THE TRACK FORECAST OF ODALYS, AND MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24 H, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
INTENSITY MAINTENANCE. THEREAFTER, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, LOWER SSTS, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND REMAINS ALIGNED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN
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