913
WTPZ41 KNHC 240832
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ODALYS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80C REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE INNER CORE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HAVE HELD STEADY AND GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 67 TO 77 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IN ADDITION,
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE WERE HELPFUL IN
REFINING THE INITIAL WIND RADII.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/7
KT. ODALYS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH
AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK
BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH
HURRICANE POLO. ADDITIONALLY, AS ODALYS WEAKENS, MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND EXACTLY WHEN IT
BECOMES STEERED BY THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL, THEN MORE STEADY, WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. SIMULATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION BY 96 H, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.5N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY
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