653
WTNT41 KNHC 240835
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT THU SEP 24 2026
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BURST IN PULSING BANDS AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FAY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 30-35 KT, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE RELATIVELY STEADY STATE OF THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION 270/6 KT.
A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FAY IS STEERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
FAY IS TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 27-28C IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. IN ABOUT 24-48 HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. AT THAT TIME, FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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