350
WTPZ41 KNHC 241448
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
ODALYS HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
CONSISTS OF A -82C CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) LOCATED OVER AN EYE
FEATURE DEPICTED IN A 1132 UTC AMSR-3 MICROWAVE COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE, AND A SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT AND IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING, INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE IN THE SHORT TERM. BY THE
WEEKEND, ODALYS SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND ODALYS SHOULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
BLENDS THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SKILLED HFIP HCCA
AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND AIDS.
ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR
060/6 KT, AND IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT HAZY AND HURRICANE POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COULD CAUSE DIRECT INTERACTION COMPLEXITIES
IN THE TRACK OF ODALYS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASING MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS HOW QUICKLY ODALYS
WEAKENS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY CHALLENGED WHILE BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI
AIDS.
ODALYS' WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0749 UTC OSCAT-3
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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