890
WTNT41 KNHC 242033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT THU SEP 24 2026
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF FAY'S CENTER,
THOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. FAY
HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT BEFORE AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY SHEAR HELPS MIX IN VERY DRY AIR OUTSIDE THE CENTRAL CORE.
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GET FAIRLY STRONG BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO DECAY INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FAY'S INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED AT 270/5 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND
THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 29.8N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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