716
WTPZ41 KNHC 242034
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
THERE ARE HINTS OF A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF ODALYS. A 1735 UTC 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE OF THE HURRICANE
SHOWED A MOSTLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS A
BIT THIN ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE
VARIOUS UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
71-84 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT, IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH RECENT D-MINT AND SATCON ESTIMATES.
ODALYS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD (060/7 KT) WHILE BEING STEERED
BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WAS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS
OF THE FORECAST, AND THE NHC PREDICTION WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS CHALLENGING, WITH ODALYS FORECAST
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WHILE WEAKENING AND ALSO POSSIBLY
BEING INFLUENCED BY THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE POLO. THE
MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES AT 72-120 H, BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL
IS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AT
DAYS 3-5. THE NHC FORECAST WAS NUDGED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT
THESE TIMES, FALLING IN BETWEEN THE LATEST TVCN AND HCCA AIDS.
IN THE NEAR TERM, SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ODALYS COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER 36 H,
A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS FORECAST BASED ON AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SHEAR, AS WELL AS DECREASING SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED
FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 H BASED ON
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 16.8N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART
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