489
WTNT41 KNHC 250249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 AM GMT FRI SEP 25 2026
FAY HAS DEVELOPED A MORE CONSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT
ITS CENTER SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THIS
STORM, HOWEVER. CIMSS-UW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
KT, WHILE TAFB RATED FAY AT 3.0 OR 45 KT. BECAUSE OF THIS, FAY'S
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD STEADY AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 270/5 KT. FAY'S FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW AS ITS STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 H, FAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO ITS
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, FAY'S SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE EVEN
FURTHER. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS HCCA GUIDANCE.
WITH CONVECTION DEEPENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, FAY COULD
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM EXPERIENCES INCREASINGLY DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FAY WILL LOSE ITS CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND, ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FAY TO REMAIN A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THAT
TIME. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REFLECT A LATER
DISSIPATION TIME, BUT OTHERWISE FAY'S OVERALL TREND REMAINS THE
SAME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 29.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 29.8N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 29.7N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1200Z 29.4N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page