505
WTPZ41 KNHC 250255
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -80 C MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB CAME IN AT T 5.0/90
KT, WITH UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 85-112 KT. USING A BLED OF THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 95 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/8
KT. ODALYS IS BEING STEERED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD TURN, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK DECREASES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, MAKING IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEERING
FROM LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WHILE POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE POLO. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER DAY
3. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE.
IN THE NEAR TERM, SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ODALYS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRUSION
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER 36 H AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE
WITH THE INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
ALONG WITH DECREASING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS
WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT 72 H BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PIERCE/KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page