958
WTNT42 KNHC 250842
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
800 AM CVT FRI SEP 25 2026
GONZALO REMAINS AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL STORM, WITH WIND SHEAR
DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
UW-CIMSS ARE AROUND 35-40 KT. GIVEN THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTING 40 KT AND A STEADY SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 340/8 KT. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, STEERED BY THE FLOW OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK,
AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND
GDMI AIDS.
GONZALO HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITHIN A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STRENGTHENING, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 27-28 DEG C. AFTER THAT TIME, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE, BECOMING FAIRLY STRONG BY DAY 2. ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL, AND MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 50, AND THEN
40 PERCENT RANGE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODEL-SIMULATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS GONZALO BECOMING DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS. THUS, THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH DAY 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT, TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM GONZALO COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF CABO
VERDE AND THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN GUINEA-BISSAU TO
SENEGAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF CABO VERDE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.2N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.4N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.0N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 23.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 20.5N 24.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 24.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.2N 25.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY
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