488
WTNT41 KNHC 250847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT FRI SEP 25 2026
FAY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS MORNING, REMAINING RESILIENT TO
THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 35 TO 48 KT. USING THESE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
GIVEN WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 DEG C, SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 H OR SO. HOWEVER,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 30S, FAY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOSE DEEP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THAT DISSIPATION HAS BEEN DELAYED, AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MEANDERING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL
MOTION OF 270/5 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEING IN A DAY OR SO AS FAY BECOMES A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW CYCLONE AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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