417
WTPZ41 KNHC 250856
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ODALYS'S EYE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES ODALYS'S STRENGTH TO
BE AROUND 100 KT, WHILE TAFB'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS RATED THE STORM
AT 5.5/102 KT. GIVEN ODALYS'S IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, OR AT 040/5 KT.
ODALYS'S TRAJECTORY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST, WHICH, COMBINED WITH ITS
LOCATION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH,
SHOULD DRIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTH MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
TRACK AFTER 48 H AS ODALYS'S FORWARD MOTION DECREASES AND HURRICANE
POLO'S WIND FIELD BECOMES AN INCREASING INFLUENCE. THE OVERALL TREND
ACROSS MODELS, HOWEVER, IS TO TURN ODALYS TO THE NORTH SOONER, SO
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, FOLLOWING A BLEND OF
HCCA AND GDMI AND THUS SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE LEFT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GIVEN ODALYS'S IMPROVED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LEFT RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE FIRST 24
H. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY THEREAFTER, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, AND COOLER SSTS. AS A
RESULT, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ODALYS FORECAST TO BECOME POST TROPICAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FALLS IN
LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
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