096
WTNT41 KNHC 251437
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT FRI SEP 25 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOSTLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
FAY, WHILE RESISTING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BASED AS DISPLAYED ON THE
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LASTEST TAFB DVORAK FIX CAME IN
AT T2.5/45 KT, HOWEVER A RECENT SAR PASS FOUND PEAK WINDS AROUND 55
KT. IN ADDITION, THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 37-42 KT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT SOME OF
THE PEAK WIND VECTORS WERE AROUND 40 KT, BUT GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE
OF FAY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ASCAT IS UNDERSAMPLING THE PEAK
WINDS. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, AS FAY IS IN A REGION OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE STATISTICAL
GFS/ECMWF SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP FORCE DRY AIR
INTO THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE, FAY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
FAY'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE DUE WEST, OR 275/3 KT AND IS
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION FOR FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE
REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST WHILE FAY WEAKENS AND
BECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GDMI ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 30.1N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 30.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0000Z 29.0N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 27.8N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS
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