852
WTNT42 KNHC 251445
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
200 PM CVT FRI SEP 25 2026
GONZALO REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED CENTER. ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND
1100 UTC REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH PEAK
WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT. THOSE PEAK WINDS WERE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT ON THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS
UNCHANGED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/9 KT. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER
GONZALO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TODAY WITH THE CENTER
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSEST TO THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AS GONZALO PASSES NEAR
OR OVER THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO MORE THAN 30 KT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME EVEN MORE BELLIGERENT
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE SSTS COOL ALONG THE TRACK AND STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES, THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AND HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS INTO TONIGHT.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM GONZALO COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN
GUINEA-BISSAU TO SENEGAL THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFRICA COASTS WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CABO VERDE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 22.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 22.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.3N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.3N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 24.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 21.3N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 21.8N 25.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 22.2N 25.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BROWN
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