212
WTPZ41 KNHC 251447
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ODALYS HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING, AND THE CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A 30 NMI 5 DEG C IRREGULAR EYE
WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS OF -80 DEG C. THE WIND
PATTERN ALOFT HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH APPARENT DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY TECHNIQUES SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115
KT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, ODALYS SHOULD ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
INHIBITING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING
OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. ACCORDINGLY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, LOSE ITS ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND, AND BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BUMPED SLIGHTLY UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PERIOD, AND IS JUST ABOVE THE HFIP HCCA AND NEAR
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR
030/5 KT. BY EARLY SATURDAY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD,
MOVING IN THE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY AN AMPLIFYING
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM HURRICANE POLO'S HORIZONTAL WIND FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN EASTWARD WHILE THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BY DAY 4, ODALYS IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF
POLO AND REDUCE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE CARRIED A LONG DISTANCE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.4N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.1N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 22.8N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 18.8N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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