167
WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR FAY HAS TAKEN A TURN DOWNWARD AS
WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE STARTED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE MOST
RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS A 2.5/35 KT AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
FROM UW-CIMSS IS IN THE RANGE OF 37-47 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE. THE STATISTICAL GFS/ECMWF SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE
IT EASIER FOR THE DRY AIR TO PENETRATE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE AND
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE SIMULATED ECMWF AND GFS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FAY LOSES ITS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, AT WHICH POINT IT WOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER
GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND SHEAR BEING OVER 20 KT AND MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE SUITE INCLUDING THE HCCA AND
GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
FAY'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 250/4 KT
AS THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, HOWEVER THE FORWARD
SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GDMI ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS
AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 29.8N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.7N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 27.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 26.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 26.1N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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