215
WTPZ41 KNHC 252036
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ODALYS IS STILL A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE,
THOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
EARLIER TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE OF ODALYS IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -65 TO -75 DEG C. EARLIER
WSF-M PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 1437 UTC SHOWED A CLOSED RING
IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL, WHILE THE 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATED THE
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS A 5.5/6.0, WHILE RECENT AIDT, D-MINT,
AND D-PRINT ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 105 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO
110 KT. THE WIND RADII FOR ODALYS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
RCM-1 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR DATA.
ODALYS IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (030/4 KT) WITHIN THE
FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY MONDAY, ODALYS IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS
THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARPER TURN THAN
THE PREVIOUS CYCLE IN THE 60-96 H TIME FRAME, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. OVERALL, THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SKILLFUL HCCA AID.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE ODALYS' FORECAST TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ODALYS LIKELY TO LOSE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48-60 H. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE HCCA AND IVCN
MULTI-MODEL AIDS.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 18.3N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART
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