663
WTNT42 KNHC 260233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
200 AM CVT SAT SEP 26 2026
ASCAT-C DATA VALID NEAR 2230 UTC INDICATED THAT GONZALO'S
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. AT THAT TIME, THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WAS SEVERELY STRETCHED BY ABOUT 100 MILES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE ASCAT DID NOT FULLY SAMPLE THE AREA WHERE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO IS STRONGEST, IT DID INDICATE
THAT THE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. BASED ON
THESE DATA AND THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK FIX, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 40 KT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE AND THE CENTER DOES NOT RE-FORM UNDER THE CONVECTION,
GONZALO COULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.
GONZALO STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THOUGH THE TRACK COULD JUMP
TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY IF THE CENTER RE-FORMS NEARER THE DEEP
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMAINING
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME DISORGANIZED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 H, WHICH
WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT THAT GONZALO IS MOVING INTO, WHICH WILL CONSIST OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOL SSTS, THIS SEEMS LIKELY. ONCE IT BECOMES A
SHALLOW CYCLONE, THE REMNANTS OF GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 16.9N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.4N 22.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 20.6N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 21.1N 23.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 21.5N 23.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 21.8N 24.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page