228
WTPZ41 KNHC 260253
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ODALYS REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE, THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE EYE OF ODALYS REMAINS
RAGGED, EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND -70 TO -75 C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY CI
NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 6.0/115 KT BUT THE FINAL-T NUMBER WAS 5.5/102
KT. THIS GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH MOST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 98 TO 106 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 010/4 KT,
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ODALYS IS ANTICIPATED TO ABRUPTLY TURN
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE HCCA AID, PULLS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF THE SHARP, EASTERLY TURN, AND MIRRORS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVER THE WEEKEND, ODALYS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, MARKED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THE UPDATED FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 60 H BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 18.8N 123.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 19.3N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN
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