938
WTNT41 KNHC 260259
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 AM GMT SAT SEP 26 2026
FAY'S STRUCTURE IS FALLING APART ONCE AGAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT ASCAT DATA RETURNED A MAXIMUM WIND RETRIEVAL
OF JUST 24 KT, BUT GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THE ASCAT DUE TO ITS
RESOLUTION, AND THE FACT THAT ALL OF THE RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 35
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW, AT 260/3 KT. STEERING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AS FAY SITS WITHIN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH, WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
H AS THE STORM MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH. TRACK
FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 H,
BEFORE EXHIBITING LARGER SPREAD THEREAFTER AS FAY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SKILLED MODELS SUGGEST THAT
FAY COULD BE PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO DISSIPATE BY THEN.
FAY HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT RECURRING CYCLES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION, WHICH HAVE ALLOWED
FAY TO GAIN A SECOND WIND, SO TO SPEAK, EVEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SSTS
REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM, EVEN AS SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING
OF FAY JUST BEYOND 48 H, LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELENTING. THE CURRENT THINKING BEHIND THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS
THAT WITH FAY WEAK ENOUGH AS IT IS, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE ITS STRUCTURE AND INHIBIT ITS ABILITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS
RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE, HOLDING FAY'S STRENGTH SOMEWHAT STEADY AS
IT UNDERGOES THESE CYCLES OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, BEFORE THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 29.9N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.9N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 29.2N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 27.2N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
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