197
WTPZ41 KNHC 260839
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026
ODALYS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE HURRICANE'S EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO), THOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 0515 UTC METOP-C
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 5.5/102 KT, BUT THE
FINAL-T NUMBER WAS 5.0/90 KT. THIS GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH MOST
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM
98 TO 106 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 355/4 KT, AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ODALYS IS ANTICIPATED TO
ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE RELIABLE HCCA CONSENSUS AID,
NUDGING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO THE SHARP EASTERLY TURN, AND
REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER.
THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS ODALYS SLOWLY MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ODALYS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED LATER THIS
WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS ODALYS
DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, A TREND SUPPORTED
BY SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 19.1N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.9N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 21.8N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 22.1N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 21.6N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 18.5N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 16.4N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PIERCE/BERG
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