951
WTNT41 KNHC 260841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT SAT SEP 26 2026
AS ANTICIPATED, FAY'S CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING,
EVEN AS THE STORM'S OVERALL ORGANIZATION DEGRADES. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM TAFB RATED FAY AT 2.0/30
KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS RATED THE INTENSITY
BETWEEN 31 AND 38 KT. WITH THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRY PASS FROM AROUND
0000 UTC YIELDING A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 24 KT, AND
CONVECTION STILL WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS SET AT 30 KT, AND FAY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
STORM MOTION REMAINS SLOW, AT 250/3 KT. FAY IS BEGINNING TO TURN TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE THEN GENERALLY DEPICTS FAY
BEING PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES AS MODELS BEGIN TO BETTER CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION, BUT STILL
EXHIBIT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISPARITY IN DEPICTING WHEN FAY WILL TURN
TO THE WEST. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT, REFLECTING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HCCA, AND
OVERALL SUGGESTS A SOONER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
CONFIDENCE IN FAY'S INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW. WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SSTS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SUGGEST AN OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. STILL, FAY'S
CONVECTION HAS RE-INITIATED MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, JUST WHEN IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS ON ITS LAST LEGS. WARM
SSTS MAY FAVOR THIS CONTINUED, PULSATING NATURE OF FAY'S
CONVECTION, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY DEGRADING FAY WILL MAKE THESE CONVECTIVE
BURSTS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS FAY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, HOWEVER YET
ANOTHER RESTRENGTHENING CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SKILLED GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO FAVOR AN OVERALL UPWARD TREND IN INTENSITY JUST BEYOND 24
H, BUT WITH FAY CURRENTLY LACKING ORGANIZATION, THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT RELATIVELY STEADY STRENGTH,
BEFORE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 29.7N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.7N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.2N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 28.4N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 27.3N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/BERG
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