428
WTNT42 KNHC 260848
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
800 AM CVT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GONZALO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. IT CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OCCURRING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE TAFB CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER IS
2.5/35 KT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM
34-41 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT, BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWARD, OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY, FOLLOWED BY A
DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. THE
STORM IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KT BY HOUR
12 OF THE FORECAST, SO I EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GONZALO
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY HOUR 24 OR A BIT SOONER. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GONZALO WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE. EARLIER
ASCAT DATA INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING
ELONGATED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN GONZALO COULD DISSIPATE
SOONER THAN FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 17.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 23.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 20.7N 23.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 24.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z 21.3N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 21.5N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 21.9N 26.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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