163
WTNT41 KNHC 261438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT SAT SEP 26 2026
FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CLEARLY STILL BEING IMPACTED BY BOTH WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR. THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS
T2.0/30 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN THE RANGE OF
31-41 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, AT 250/4
KT. A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN IS EXPECTED AS FAY CONTINUES MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE DEPRESSION TURNING WESTWARD DUE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE
HCCA FORECAST AID.
THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS
FAY REMAINS OVER AN AREA OF FAVORABLY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO HINDER THE SYSTEM, PREVENTING A MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE FROM
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PULSING BUT THE CURRENT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. THIS
FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL IT
BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AND DISSIPATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 29.6N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 29.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.8N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.9N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 26.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 25.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.0N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN
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