170
WTNT42 KNHC 261441
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
200 PM CVT SAT SEP 26 2026
GONZALO REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. EVEN THOUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON GOES-19 VISIBLE IMAGES APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS ELONGATED THAN OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A BRUTAL 45 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
PEAK WIND OF 31 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING, BUT
MISSED THE CENTER AND THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 35 KT THIS ADVISORY, ASSUMING SOME STRONGER
WINDS STILL EXIST IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY A NARROW
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) AIDS. INTENSITY-WISE, GONZALO LIKELY DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER AS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ABOVE 40 KT. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED, AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE
NEXT 12 H AS THE CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY STRIPPED AWAY. TOTAL
DISSIPATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT LOW
DRIFTS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC BASIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 18.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.8N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 20.6N 23.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 21.2N 23.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 21.5N 24.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 21.7N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 21.8N 25.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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