602
WTPZ41 KNHC 261446
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE STRUCTURE OF ODALYS THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY GOING
DOWNHILL. THE SMALL EYE THAT HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE
IS NO LONGER SEEN ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER
AMSR3 MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWED THE INNER CORE HAS DEGRADED AS
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES, NOW DIAGNOSED AT 32
KT BY UW-CIMSS. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WITH THE ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR, ODALYS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE DECOUPLING IN THE NEXT 24-36 H AS SHEAR
IMPORTS NEARBY DRY AIR IS INTO THE CIRCULATION'S CORE. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED QUITE A BIT FORM THE PREVIOUS ONE,
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY, BUT ALSO WITH THE
EXPECTATION THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY SUCCUMB TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW SHOWS ODALYS
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 48 H AND DISSIPATING BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION
AT 360 DEGREE AT 6 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12-24 H, THOUGH AS THE
THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW IT SHOULD TURN
SHARPLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH AS IT BECOMES MORE
INFLUENCED BY BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT WAS ALSO
SHIFTED WESTWARD AFTER ODALYS BECOME A REMNANT LOW, FOLLOWING THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) GUIDANCE.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.8N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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