809
WTPZ41 KNHC 262034
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026
ODALYS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ON SATELLITE THE
HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER, WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED ABOVE 35 KT
FROM THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. A WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE AVAILABLE
AFTER THE PRIOR ADVISORY ALSO NO LONGER SHOWS AN EYEWALL ON THE 89
GHZ CHANNEL AS THE STORM BECOMES INCREASINGLY TILTED DOWNSHEAR WITH
HEIGHT. THE 18 UTC TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS STILL A CI
5.0/90 KT, BUT THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL,
RANGING FROM 63-78 KT. A BLEND OF THE DATA YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF
80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ABATE, AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY SURROUNDED BY
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS IT ALSO MOVES TOWARDS COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THUS, CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECASTED, AND THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL INDICATES ODALYS BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 48 H. HOWEVER, THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN
FORECAST, AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE FORECAST
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.
THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH, ESTIMATED AT
5 DEGREES AT 6 KT. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE TRACK REASONING,
WITH ODALYS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH HAS THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON ITS MOTION AS IT REMAINS
VERTICALLY COHERENT. WHEN THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES VERTICALLY, THIS
MOTION SHOULD ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN 24-48 H AS
THE NOW SHALLOW CYCLONE WILL BE MAINLY STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ONE, CONTINUING TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI) GUIDANCE.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 20.5N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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