336
WTNT41 KNHC 262038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE CONVECTION AROUND FAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY STRIPPED AWAY BY THE WIND
SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
FIX WAS T2.0/30 KT AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN THE
RANGE OF 29-39 KT. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH, AT 180/2 KT. FAY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE CURRENT
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS FAY IS STILL OVER FAVORABLY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
CONTINUE TO HINDER THE DEPRESSION AND PREVENTING A MORE ORGANIZED
STRUCTURE FROM DEVELOPING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS HAVE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 40
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO PULSE UP AND DOWN, BUT THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL IT BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AND DISSIPATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 29.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.6N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.8N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 25.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 24.1N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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