043
WTNT41 KNHC 270236
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 AM GMT SUN SEP 27 2026
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION AROUND FAY CONTINUES TO PULSATE, THE STORM'S
OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES FAY'S
INTENSITY BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. WITH THE LATEST ASCAT PASS
ONLY CLIPPING THE STORM'S WESTERN FLANK, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
HELD STEADY AT 30 KT, MOSTLY TO COMPENSATE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
INTENSIFICATION UNDER THESE CONVECTIVE PULSES.
FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION SET AT
190/2 KT. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK AS FAY REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A SOLUTION, DEPICTING FAY
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
IT IS PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, REFLECTING
ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO BLEND BETTER WITH HCCA GUIDANCE.
FAY'S FATE WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW LONG THIS LATEST ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LAST. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE CONVECTIVE PULSES MAY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAY COULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED, DEPICTING A RELATIVELY
STEADY SYSTEM ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT FAY'S CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 29.6N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 29.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.4N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.4N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 24.6N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 24.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
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