475
WTNT41 KNHC 270850
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT SUN SEP 27 2026
FAY'S CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN. SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
STORM'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS GROWN IN SIZE, WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES NEARING -80°C AT TIMES. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB RATED FAY AT 1.5/25 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES THE STORM'S STRENGTH BETWEEN 29-36
KT. GIVEN FAY'S PULSATING CYCLES OF CONVECTION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS HELD STEADY AT 30 KT, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT BRIEF
PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MAX WINDS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW AT 170/3 KT. HOWEVER, FAY IS EXPECTED TO
GAIN FORWARD SPEED SOON AS IT ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND IS PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, REFLECTING ONLY A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD SHIFT TO BLEND BETTER
WITH HCCA GUIDANCE.
AS LONG AS FAY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS,
ITS CYCLES OF PULSATING CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IT WAS
ANTICIPATED THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD WORK TO BREAK
APART FAY'S CIRCULATION, BUT THE STORM HAS PROVEN RESILIENT. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE LATEST, BEFORE FAY OPENS
UP INTO A TROUGH SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LITTLE WAS CHANGED IN THE
LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY IS EXPECTED TO WAVER RIGHT AROUND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS
CONVECTION PULSATES, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING FOR GOOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 29.2N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 28.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.2N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 24.3N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 23.6N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
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