901
WTPZ41 KNHC 270855
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026
ODALYS REMAINS A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE, BUT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM'S OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN -65°C AND -70°C JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS
4.5/77 KT, BUT THE FINAL T-NUMBER WAS 3.5/55 KT, WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGING BETWEEN
53 AND 65 KT, FURTHER SUGGESTING ODALYS' WEAKENING TREND. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.
THE ASCAT FROM AROUND 0435Z STILL HAD 57 KT VECTORS, AND GIVEN THE
LOW BIAS OF ASCAT AT THOSE WIND SPEEDS, THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING
ODALYS A HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD AT 360/7 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK REASONING, AS ODALYS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD WHILE A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STEERS THE
VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE. ONCE THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES, MOTION IS
FORECAST TO TURN ABRUPTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE HCCA AND GDMI ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS AIDS DEMONSTRATES A SHARPER TURN SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WHILE CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ODALYS WILL FACE AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY
SURROUNDING AIR, AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES. AS A
RESULT, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE MODELS INDICATE ODALYS
WILL TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.4N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/1800Z 22.0N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0600Z 21.0N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 19.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 19.1N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page