485
WTNT41 KNHC 271439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT SUN SEP 27 2026
THIS MORNING'S GOES-19 PROXY-VIS SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES
THAT FAY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY, AND
THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE, DISPLACING THE SMALL PULSATING DEEP BURSTS OF
CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CENTER. THE GFS/ECMWF
STATISTICAL SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SHEAR PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREFORE, THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS FAY
MAINTAINING DEPRESSION STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE DUE TO DETERMINISTIC AND AI-SINGLE MODEL
AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT FAY WILL FINALLY LOSE WHAT LITTLE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IT HAS HELD ONTO, AND EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO
A TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHIPS AND THE HFIP HCCA GUIDANCE.
FAY'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, OR
160/3 KT. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
CYCLONE. A FEW OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, AND THIS AGREES WITH THE BETTER
PERFORMING CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 29.3N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.8N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 27.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 25.3N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 24.6N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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