238
WTPZ41 KNHC 271445
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A FORTUITOUS 1038 UTC NOAA-20 VISIBLE INFRARED IMAGING RADIOMETER
SUITE (VIIRS) LUNAR CALIBRATION IMAGE INDICATED THAT ODALYS IS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN NOTED EARLIER. THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY BECOMING DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
A SMALL PATCH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE
CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES AND
THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.
ODALYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN QUICKLY WHILE MOVING WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY INHIBITING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. SUBSEQUENTLY,
ODALYS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT, AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON
MONDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE SKILLED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ODALYS
SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW, AND THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND AGREES WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
ODALYS' INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 005/5 KT.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, AND THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT
TERM. ON MONDAY, A SEVERELY SHEARED, VERTICALLY TILTED ODALYS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHARPLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PRODUCED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE HFIP HCCA AND GDMI GUIDANCE.
ODALYS' WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON 0455 UTC METOP-C AND
A 0433 UTC METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
DISTANT MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY INDIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE REGION. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 22.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.0N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/1200Z 22.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 20.6N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 19.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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