369
WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
300 PM CST SUN SEP 27 2026
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES
ASSOCIATED THE CYCLONE REMAIN FRAGMENTED, BUT A COUPLE OF ASCAT
PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 1500 UTC REVEALED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STATUS, MAKING RACHEL THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON.
RACHEL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/4 KT. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS
HEADING SHOULD RESULT IN THE CORE OF THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 72 HOURS, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO SLOW, BUT REMAIN ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROHIBITIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING. IN FACT, MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE FEW DAYS, AND
RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT
TIME, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SSTS AS RACHEL MAY TRACK
OVER THE COOL WAKE FROM HURRICANE POLO. AS A RESULT, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST PLATEAUS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 12.6N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 13.1N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER BROWN
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