440
WTNT41 KNHC 272038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 PM GMT SUN SEP 27 2026
FAY IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM BASICALLY CONSISTS OF A
SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION LOCATED MORE THAN 60 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT, IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO PULSE,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING AND PERSISTING NEAR
THE CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CURRENT STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS, BUT THAT
TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT RETURN. REGARDLESS OF THIS SYSTEM'S STATUS, LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATER THIS WEEK.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
AND A SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS, AND THAT IS
REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 28.9N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 28.1N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.1N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 25.1N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z 24.4N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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