700
WTNT41 KNHC 280236
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 AM GMT MON SEP 28 2026
LITTLE CAN BE SAID ABOUT FAY THAT HASN'T BEEN SAID ALREADY ACROSS
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE STORM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO ROUNDS OF
DIURNAL, PULSATING CONVECTION, ALLOWING FOR IT TO REMAIN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DESPITE BEING DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. SCATTEROMETRY DATA
FROM AROUND 2300 UTC ALSO CONFIRMS THAT A CLOSED, ALBEIT WEAK,
CIRCULATION PERSISTS. WITH MAX WINDS FROM THIS SCATTEROMETRY PASS
READING AROUND 20 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR FAY WAS SET AT 25
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 190/5 KT. FAY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP
SPEED AS IT ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
AND IS CARRIED MORE BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. A BRIEF
SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE JUST A FEW HOURS AGO,
BUT NOW FAY IS BEGINNING ITS FORECASTED SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE FAY'S FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH THE
HCCA GUIDANCE.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT FAY WILL DEGENERATE INTO
A TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION OCCURING JUST BEFORE. FLUCTUATIONS IN FAY'S INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED SO LONG AS THESE DIURNAL CYCLES OF CONVECTION
CONTINUE, HOWEVER WITH NOW TWO CONSECUTIVE SCATTEROMETRY PASSES
DEPICTING FAY'S MAX WINDS AT AROUND 21 KT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS LEFT AT 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH LITTLE IN THE
GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST THAT FAY WILL
STRENGTHEN MEANINGFULLY BEYOND THAT BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 43.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 27.6N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.3N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.2N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z 24.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI
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