367
WTNT41 KNHC 280848
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
900 AM GMT MON SEP 28 2026
FAY'S CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUSLY SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
APPEAR TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS, WITH TAFB PROVIDING A SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT. BASED PRIMARILY ON FAY'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 30 KT, BUT FAY REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE FORECAST INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, AS WELL AS A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THIS
ADVISORY, THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 210/6 KT. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FAY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GUIDANCE IS THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 H, IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA
GUIDANCE.
SO LONG AS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AND SCATTEROMETRY
DATA DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW, FAY WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
EVEN AS SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS FAY ENTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
IN TERMS OF SSTS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, THE
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT FAY'S PRESENCE UNDER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRIVE CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAKEN ITS
CIRCULATION TO THE POINT OF DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
AND HAVE FAY ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET, WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE CYCLONE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
FAY BECOMING POST-TROPICAL LATE TUESDAY, WITH DISSIPATION A DAY OR
TWO LATER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 27.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.0N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.4N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN/MAHONEY
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