229
WTNT41 KNHC 281439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
300 PM GMT MON SEP 28 2026
FAY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS WERE
AROUND 25-30 KT, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT, LEANING TOWARD THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR
210/8 KT. FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL MOTION, WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES BEING
IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AID.
FAY HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS
POSSIBLE FAY COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER, THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION
IN A DAY OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING LATE TUESDAY AND
DEGENERATING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 27.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.0N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 24.6N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 23.1N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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