228
WTPZ43 KNHC 281439
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
900 AM CST MON SEP 28 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT RACHEL REMAINS A
SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
SHEAR ANALYSES SHOWING ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 35-50 KT AND THEY
HAVE NUDGED UPWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS THUS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/7 KT. FOR THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS, RACHEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT,
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN RACHEL BEING LEFT IN AN AREA OF WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS AND A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE
AFTER 24 H. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MODERATE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 96 H. EVEN
WITH THE FORECAST SHEAR, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING, WITH THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING INCREASING A LITTLE
AFTER 24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND OF THE GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF RACHEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
2. OUTER BANDS FROM RACHEL WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE WAVES COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 14.5N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 15.5N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 16.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 17.8N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 18.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 19.3N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 19.8N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 20.5N 110.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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